Knowledge, Tooling, and Time

For any job, you usually need three things: Knowledge (how to do it), Tooling (the tools to do it), and Time (the time to do it). In theory, anyone can do any job as long as they have these three things. If my kitchen sink is leaking, I don't need to hire a plumber; I can just fix it myself. I just need the knowledge, the tools, and the time. I could even perform surgery on someone if needed, I would just need the knowledge, the tools, and the time.

Comparing these two examples, we can see how the barrier to entry rises as jobs get more complex. Sewing a button onto a shirt is something most people can do, repairing plumbing can be done by fewer, and performing surgery can be done by very few.

The idea that AI will kill all jobs seems naive to me. Sure, some jobs are redundant or even irrelevant, and were even before AI tools became mainstream. But some jobs require a higher level of complexity and won't be trusted to AI agents for some time. More importantly, my original point remains true: people visit a doctor because they lack knowledge, hire a plumber because they lack tooling, or take their clothes to the cleaners because they lack time.

AI is tooling, and in some cases, it can provide knowledge, but many people will always be willing to exchange money for time.